This study is a follow-up to the 2024 Alternative Approaches to Reevaluating the Thrifty Food Plan report and implements the alternative approaches in a series of test cases to provide detailed information on the feasibility of each option.
Key Takeaway
This study determined that each of the three alternative approaches for reevaluating the Thrifty Food Plan failed to meet at least one of the following feasibility assessment criteria: (1) technical feasibility, (2) low barriers to implementation, and (3) substantively different in findings compared to the existing approach.
Definitions
- Thrifty Food Plan
The Thrifty Food Plan outlines nutrient-dense foods and beverages, their amounts, and associated costs that can be purchased on a limited budget to support a healthy diet through nutritious meals and snacks at home. Federal law specifies that the cost of the Thrifty Food Plan in June for a reference family of four (a man and woman 20 through 50 years of age, a child 6 through 8 years of age, and a child 9 through 11 years of age) serves as the basis for setting:
- Maximum Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefit allotments for the following federal fiscal year beginning each Oct. 1 (7 USC 2012(u)).
- Annual adjustments to block grant amounts for the Nutrition Assistance Program in Puerto Rico and American Samoa (7 USC 2028(a)(2)(A)(ii)).
- Annual adjustments to the dollar amount of commodities the Secretary of Agriculture has the authority to acquire through the Commodity Credit Corporation each fiscal year (7 USC 2036(a)(2)(E)).
- Annual adjustments to Summer Electronic Benefits Transfer benefit allotments for the following calendar year (42 USC 1762(b)(2)(A)(ii)).
- Optimization-based approach
The existing method for reevaluating the Thrifty Food Plan that uses a mathematical model to select quantities of foods and beverages that represent a nutritious diet, subject to a set of constraints.
- Purchase-based approach
A potential alternative approach that would use existing food purchase data to identify households that purchase a healthy mix of foods; the purchased foods and associated costs would be used to define the Thrifty Food Plan.
- Menu-based approach
A potential alternative approach that would have nutritionists develop healthy, lower-cost menus that serve as the basis for determining the Thrifty Food Plan market basket and associated cost.
- Econometric-based approach
A potential alternative approach that would use economic modeling to calculate the Thrifty Food Plan based on criteria such as maximizing utility (a demand system method) or finding the most efficient/least expensive method of producing a healthy diet (a stochastic production frontier method).
Key Findings
- Among the alternative approaches, only the demand system-based implementation of the econometric-based approach was technically feasible to implement and had low barriers to implementation. However, the resulting market basket and corresponding cost to this approach did not meaningfully differ from the market basket and cost achieved using the existing optimization-based approach used in the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan reevaluation.
- Meaningful results using the stochastic production frontier-implementation of the econometric-based approach could not be obtained, rendering this method technically infeasible.
- Existing data sources lacked adequate sample sizes to support the purchase-based approach. Among other shortcomings, this prevented the study from determining a Thrifty Food Plan market basket or associated cost in accordance with federal requirements using this approach.
- The menu-based approach was implemented on a small-scale using predominantly manual methods. There were high barriers to larger-scale implementation given current menu-planning technology. The resulting Thrifty Food Plan market basket of the menu-based approach differed substantively from the 2021 Thrifty Food Plan reevaluation with its resulting cost, on average, 60% higher.
Why FNS Did This Study
As part of our commitment to continuous process improvement and evidence-based policy making, we published the Alternative Approaches to Reevaluating the Thrifty Food Plan report in 2024 to describe three potential alternative approaches and three potential revisions to the existing optimization model along with their advantages, disadvantages, and expected level of effort for implementation.
To determine which, if any, of the alternative approaches could be incorporated into future Thrifty Food Plan reevaluations, we commissioned this follow-on study to implement the alternatives raised in the 2024 report through a series of test cases.
How FNS Did This Study
Feasibility of the alternative approaches for reevaluating the Thrifty Food Plan, using currently available resources and technology, was assessed according to three feasibility criteria:
- Technical feasibility: Whether it is possible to generate a Thrifty Food Plan market basket and corresponding cost given available data sources and analytical tools, even if current sample sizes or data limitations prevent precise or reliable estimates at this time.
- Barriers to implementation: Whether technological limitations, level of uncertainty in the estimates, insufficient sample sizes, or the need to rely on strong and/or numerous assumptions would impede adoption of the approach at scale to consistently generate a reliable Thrifty Food Plan market basket and cost.
- Substantive difference in findings from the existing optimization-based approach: Whether the resulting market basket composition and estimated cost diverge in meaningful ways from those produced under the current optimization-based Thrifty Food Plan model.
Suggested Citation
Sarah Bardin, Keith Kranker, Elizabeth Gearan, and Noemie Sportiche (2025). A Feasibility Assessment of Alternative Approaches for Reevaluating the Thrifty Food Plan. Prepared by Mathematica, Contract No. 12319823F0054. Alexandria, VA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Service, Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion. https://www.fns.usda.gov/cnpp/tfp-implementing-alternative-approaches-2025